A Simple Process: Stats, Edge Notes, and Bankroll Discipline
Key Takeaway
Research finds candidates; process decides stakes. Write why a bet qualifies, size it before kickoff, and review misses the same way you review wins.
Edge Notes
Keep a one-line thesis per bet: market, sample, and the risk that kills it. NoRisk cards feed the thesis — they do not replace it.
Stake Rules
Flat or small fractional stakes beat improvised size after a heater. If the sample is thin, cut size even when the story feels strong.
Write the thesis
One line: market, sample, and the risk that kills it. If you cannot write that before kickoff, you are browsing, not staking.
Review misses the same way you review wins. NoRisk cards are the evidence file — your notes are the decision record.
Try it on a league
Open a competition you watch weekly. Price one market with a written thesis and a flat stake. Do not add a second bet until that process holds.
Reading the Match Research Workspace: What Bettors Need First
Patterns & Hit Rates: How to Read Outcome Cards Without Overfitting
Player Props: Building Shot and Shots-on-Target Queries